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The new government IS a Fine Gael – Fianna Fail coalition!

Written by Joerg Steegmueller
The new government IS a Fine Gael – Fianna Fail coalition!

So they made it!! After 70 days finally a new government has been elected when on Friday Enda Kenny (Fine Gael) was re-elected as the Taoiseach.

It is called a “minority government” that is tolerated by Fianna Fail and supported by some of the Independent TDs. When the Taoiseach got elected, the Fianna Fail TDs abstained and therefore a handful of Independents was enough for Enda Kenny to get the majority.

Odd that Micheal Martin didn’t want to be in power since it was offered to him to be part of the government through a coalition. But the reason why Micheal Martin’s Fianna Fail didn’t want to get involved and form a Grand Coalition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail is because they were worried that the electors would punish them for it in the next elections. In recent elections the smaller coalition partner (i.e. Greens and Labour) was always blamed more for a screw up of the government than the dominating party and Micheal Martin didn’t want to risk that.

So the solution was a to tolerate a minority Fine Gael government. But does that REALLY change the situation?

Is Fianna Fail now NOT part of the government and will they by innocent if Enda Kenny does a bad job?? Actually NOT AT ALL!! This is really a coalition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, just with the odd configuration that Fianna Fail will not contribute in a positive way in the day to day running of the country.

Why do I call it a coalition? Well, if you sit down with the other party for days and negotiate a “deal” that will last for three years, during which Fianna Fail will support whatever Fine Gael does then you can’t claim anymore that you are innocent! It is like standing next to someone who commits a criminal act and not doing anything. You will NOT get away with your “I had nothing to do with it!” claim.

So this new government is a Grand Coalition, just not by name! And if Enda Kenny screws up and Fianna Fail won’t stop him because they promised to support him for 3 years, then Fianna Fail will also have to be appropriately punished for it! Don’t fall for Micheal Martin’s trick!

Elections, Politics, Society, , , , , , ,

Irish Politics: After the election – What now?

Written by Joerg Steegmueller
Irish Politics: After the election – What now?

The election is over and the results are interesting. Obviously everybody can interpret the results differently based on their own preferences and therefore my interpretation can’t be completely neutral either. But this is what I see:

Fine Gael and Labour were punished severely for how they ran the country in the last 5 years. Labour largely lost their identity and differentiation in the last 5 years and this resulted in a wipeout in many constituencies. But if you think it is over for Fine Gael and Labour, you will be wrong. As we have seen with Fianna Fail, all that is needed is a government that does things in no better way and suddenly you can be back at the races. So if Fine Gael and Labour want to have a chance to win again next time, they should just let Fianna Fail run the country further into the ground.

Sinn Fein definitely is the biggest winner, but many think that they will win as long as they are not involved in a government as their promises don’t seem to be realisable. The rest is just the rest. Yes, some could get a king maker role in the search for a stable government but since most Independent and many others are more interested in their constituency than the country their election is in many cases counterproductive.

What now? The worst would be to have a new election very soon and luckily the politicians agree with that largely. A new election now would result in a possibly totally random result. Some voters could be shocked about the wins or losses of one or the other party and might change thei voting behaviour significantly, so the outcome is unpredictable and nobody who just got voted in would want that.

So then the only other option is to build a government. The two parties are struggling against it, but in my opinion Fianna Fail and Fine Gael should definitely form a Grand Coalition. They have well over 50% of the seats and the voters did want to have them in that position. Micheal Martin’s suggestion of a comprehensive reform of the Dail and the system is a very good idea and the two big parties could work that out together. It doesn’t really matter to the country or the people who is Taoiseach, but I can understand why to the parties this looks differently. A Grand Coalition can be good for the country, but it also can be detrimental to the junior partner in such a coalition. They might get punished in the next election even further.

Sinn Fein might get away again of not having to take any leadership role, but they won’t get away forever. There wanting to stay in the opposition is well justified and makes sense from their point. In control they would have to put promises into reality and that can be very very difficult….and once you screw up, your meteoric rise might not continue.

So there is a LOT of strategising going on. More than is good for Ireland. But ti shouldn’t really surprise us that the parties, like the Independents, more think about their own bacon than about what is good for the country.

By the way, if no government is found, that’s no problem. The Irish constitution has considered that as a possibility: The old government will continue until a new government is found. There will never be a gap. Minority governments are also a possibility. Yes, more negotiation will be required. But essential laws have even in the past been agreed by the big parties, so they could still continue with that. And non essential laws are just that: Non essential! The budget is many moons away and even a need to negotiate a budget that would be acceptable by all might not be automatically a bad thing.

Are we in a mess? Not at all! There is no panic or worry about the future of the country. I hope they will all talk to all parties and see what makes sense and what can be done and at some stage in the next few months, we will probably have a new government again. Patience!! :-)

Elections, Politics, , , , , ,

Fianna Fail vs Fine Gael – No real difference, but big enemies!

Written by Joerg Steegmueller
Fianna Fail vs Fine Gael – No real difference, but big enemies!

The election is over and at the time of writing this, the polling stations are just about to close so I have no idea yet, what the outcome of the election will be. BUT, we all have certain expectations and these expectations are usually influenced by the media reporting in the last few days and weeks.

Most commentators expect the outcome to be a “hung” Dail. Hanging in this case is nothing bad or negative and it is a strong word for the situation that means nothing else that not one party or one previous coalition has a clear majority. Big deal! Just find new alliances and form a new coalition. Yes, that’s what most would think, but in Ireland things work a little different, because for some odd reason the two parties that ALWAYS have been the biggest parties in the Dail, really don’t get on with each other.

Substantial difference of opinion? Different ideologies? Not at all! And that is the oddest thing about it! Fianna Fail and Fine Gael really have largely the same opinions about society, economy, justice and nearly all other areas of politics. Yes, there are some differences, but they are really quite small and sometimes you feel they disagree just to pretend that they have separate identities.

So, why do two parties that have the same opinions not work together? Looking at this situation from the outside (or as a foreigner) really doesn’t show any reason for their opposition to each other. But if you ask that question in Ireland, most informed people will have an immediate answer and they will tell you that it goes back to the Irish Civil War.

WHAT? So, the separation of these near-twins goes back more than 90 years and they still haven’t realised (or are struggling with the realisation) that they are more alike than different? Any coalition, Fianna Fail with the Greens in the previous Dail and Fine Gael with Labour in the just finishing Dail period HAS to be much more of a challenge than a coalition between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. Do they not realise that?

Seemingly they don’t! And so it could happen that if there will indeed be a “hung” Dail we will have sooner a re-election than a cooperation between these two oh so similar parties.

(BTW: I am no suggesting that either of them or a coalition of the two is the best solution for Ireland. They both have not convinced in their periods of governing the country and with that in mind, putting two bad apples together wouldn’t create a yummy peach, it just would probably cause a bigger rotten fruit. The above article is more a reflection on the astonishing fact that they feel they can’t work together, 90 years after their disagreement. Imagine if that idiotic stubbornness was still in place in Northern Ireland! They would still kill each other!)

Elections, Irish, Politics, Society, , ,

Decentralisation Project terminated

Written by Joerg Steegmueller
Decentralisation Project terminated

The government’s decentralisation project is finally being more or less terminated. It never made any sense, was a failed Fianna Fail idea from the start and was only invented to please people outside of Dublin so that they would vote for Fianna Fail.
www.rte.ie/news/2011/1117/publicservice.html
Unfortunately, though, in quite a number of locations buildings or sites have been bought years ago (when they were most expensive) or long term leases have been signed. So this nonsensical idea will be with us and will cost us for quite some time.

Politics,

Dail Holidays again? Or maybe not!

Written by Joerg Steegmueller
Dail Holidays again? Or maybe not!

The Dail (Irish Parliament) is known for its propensity to take time off. The Fianna Fail government was heavily criticised in recent years, that despite serious issues in the country the parliament needed their loooong holidays. That was the OLD government that held on to the many and long holidays. But all has changed since the elections! Or has it??

Breakingnews.ie reports at www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-cancels-mid-term-break-for-dail-525874.html this:

Taoiseach cancels mid-term break for Dáil
26/10/2011 – 12:14:30
The Taoiseach Enda Kenny has cancelled a mid-term break for politicians next week.

The Dáil was due to adjourn tonight until Tuesday week.

But after opposition from Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil and People Before Profit, Mr Kenny announced the Dáil will now sit on Wednesday and Thursday next week.

There are two HUGELY interesting aspects in this small article.

1) The party that for decades held steadfastly on to the much too long holidays is now opposing them. Fianna Fail opposed the mid-term break!

2) The party that came to power with the promise that they will change all bad habits and will reform a broken system that the previous government left behind had NO intention to cancel the holidays. If Enda Kenny hadn’t suggested that there should be holidays, the others would not have had to oppose. So Enda Kenny from Fine Gael no better than the previous leaders from Fianna Fail?

You probably are wondering if the people that didn’t oppose really think they are in school, because the mid-term break is for schools only! I wonder too! Odd!!

Politics, , , ,
 
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