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It is official: NPHET, Tony Holohan and Philip Nolan have no clue!

What a bunch of clowns! NPHET are allegedly the Covid “experts” in Ireland and a Dr Tony Holohan, aka Chief Medical Officer, and a Prof Philip Nolan, who heads the statisticians and modellers that tried to predict the spread of the Coronavirus, are two of NPHET’s main voices. And both have been declared as incompetent by people that know a lot more about a subject Holohan and Nolan felt they needed to give their unqualified opinion about.

The subject is Antigen Self-Tests, which are inexpensive tests for home use that many experts and government organisations see for a long time as a key instrument to stop the spread of Covid. A test costs just EUR 5 and will tell you if you are infectious (something the PCR test can’t tell!) within about 15 minutes.

In Germany the Department of Health has negotiated with suppliers to secure the availability of 130 million self tests. Self-tests are now available through pharmacies and also in supermarkets and it is recommended to test at least twice a week.

Self-tests are made available for free in the UK and, for example, parents of school kids are asked to test themselves and their kids regularly because self-tests are an essential part of the pandemic strategy. You can order up to 2 packs of 7 at a time online for free on a government website and per week around 28 mio tests are given out.

The Centre of Disease control in the USA said on 07 May that U.S.-bound international air travelers can meet COVID-19 entry requirements using self-tests. (www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/cdc-says-us-bound-travelers-can-use-some-self-covid-19-tests-2021-05-07/)

And the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) is recommending that rapid antigen testing can help reduce the spread of the virus in high-risk indoor workplaces and should be used to complement other tests. (www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/stop-spread-could-diagnostic-antigen-tests-help-control-covid-19-transmission)

Closer to home, the Chief Scientific Adviser to the Government of Ireland, Professor Mark W. J. Ferguson, is heading the “COVID-19 Rapid Testing Group”, that was put together by the Irish Government. And this group already said on 19 March 2021 in the section “Start Immediately” that “It is very important to initiate rapid testing programmes now.” The report looks at the all aspects of rapid tests and clearly comes to the conclusion that rapid tests, which includes self-tests, should be made available in Ireland to complement all other measures. www.gov.ie/en/publication/f50f0-report-of-the-covid-19-rapid-testing-group/

This report has been published by the government and is definitely available to NPHET, but they seemingly can’t read:

On Fri 07 May, in the daily “NPHET show” (which should have been stopped by the government a long long time ago.) Tony Holohan warned against the use of antigen tests and he went so far to even say that consumers should not buy antigen testing kits due to the risk of false results and amazingly, Holohan claimed “Their use poses a “real risk” to the pandemic response.” So CDC, ECDC, German and UK Health Ministers are supporting what poses a “real risk” to the pandemic response?? (www.irishtimes.com/news/health/nphet-warns-public-against-relying-on-antigen-tests-being-sold-in-supermarkets-1.4558458)

On 08 May, then Philip Nolan claimed in a tweet that Covid Self-tests are “snake oil”, which is even worse than saying they are useless and which also is totally incorrect and actually a dangerous statement. (twitter.com/President_MU/status/1391095650750709769?s=20)

Clearly Holohan and Nolan are either wiser than international experts… or they are incompetent clowns!

To help us assess this, let’s listen to Professor Dr. Michael Mina, an Epidemiologist, Immunologist and Physician at Harvard Public Health/Medical School. He replied to Philip Nolan’s tweet and has this opinion:

“For an advisor to your government – you don’t appear to know what you are talking about wrt rapid tests. […] You should be ashamed of your demeanor here.”

Irish Journalist Philip Nolan (same name, but different person than the misguided Professor) commented on the tweet with “My sister in the UK had five sent to her by the NHS. Is the NHS a snake-oil sales organisation, or are you just pissed off a supermarket is doing more than you are?”

With all facts considered, the tweet by Prof Philip Nolan was incompetent, ignorant and arrogant. This tweet and Tony Holohan’s warning to stay away from these tests reveals that the two “leading experts” in Ireland either have no clue or – and that would be worse – have a vested interest in only recommending PCR tests.

Nobody would claim that the self-tests are perfect but nobody is either suggesting that they shouldn’t be anything else but a COMPLEMENT to other strategies. And as such a complement, NPHET should help educating the public about their use and how best to use these tests and NOT use their personal aversion to inappropriately disparage these tests.

Taoiseach Micheal Martin, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly and Tanaiste Leo Varadkar would be well advised in replacing Tony Holohan and Philip Nolan after this revelation of clear incompetence and instead trust people like the Chief Scientific Adviser to the Government Professor Mark W. J. Ferguson.

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And to give a little bit more detail about what Holohan and Nolan got so upset about:

Supermarket chain Lidl is selling Rapid Antigen self-tests since this week. The tests are manufactured by Xiamen Boson Biotech Co and are called “Rapid SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Test Card” with CE mark and with completed validation studies carried out in Germany. They are in the EU’s list of approved tests (ec.europa.eu/health/sites/default/files/preparedness_response/docs/covid-19_rat_common-list_en.pdf) and have an impressive 93.8% sensitivity and a 100% specificity.

The tests are available in Lidl Ireland for about EUR 25 for 5 tests.

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Update (10 May):
With additional posts, Prof Dr Michael Mina has made an attempt per Twitter to school Philip Nolan on the meaning of “test sensitivity”, on the shortfalls of PCR tests and on the importance to detect infectiousness in a public health context. But he also is sensing something MUCH MUCH more relevant. In his last tweet he wrote “Your comments are squarely at odds with the science and appear to instead be motivated by something else.” (twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1391636626250604546?s=20)
Now Health Minister Stephen Donnelly just HAS to step in and take action!

Covid Hotel Quarantine starts in Ireland…but NOTHING will change!

After a very long long delay, the Irish Government finally managed to “turn on” the mandatory Hotel Quarantine for some specific people coming to Ireland. It took a long time until all laws were in place and the whole scheme was organised and on Friday, the first people (rumours has it that they came to Ireland on a flight from Saudi Arabia) have moved into their hotel room where they will have to stay for 12 days and will to pay EUR 1850 for the pleasure.

On the list of countries of people that will be forced to stay in hotel quarantine are the usual holiday destinations like Botswana, Burundi and Angola and without a doubt a LOT of tourists will come from these locations. NOT! Also on it are countries like Brazil where there is a big problem at the moment. But there is no USA or France or Italy on the list where the problems are ALSO big. Instead from the countries we seem to like more, you just need a PCR test and then you won’t be forced into hotel quarantine. How can we apply completely different rules? Oddly the only European country on the list is Austria, which is definitely not the worst in Europe. And also very oddly: Mauritius is on the list that has a super low infection rate but that unfairly got involved in some mud throwing by the UK. (www.joergsteegmueller.com/2021/02/27/trust-in-authorities-during-covid-times/) So the UK added them to the list and magically, they appear on the Irish list as well.

In addition to arrivals from 33 countries (www.citizensinformation.ie/en/travel_and_recreation/travel_to_ireland/hotel_quarantine.html) everyone has to go into hotel quarantine that arrives from any other country but does not have a negative or not detected PCR test that was taken within 72 hours.

The quarantine MIGHT have made sense in March 2020, but now it is a joke! The HSE estimates that approx. 1.7% of all cases are brought into Ireland through international travel. So you can expect that that complicated scheme that involves a whole range of hotels with income guarantees and even utilises the army to escort the prisoners, sorry…arriving travelers to the hotels.

A totally mad and ineffective system at the totally wrong time with totally wrong rules.

Here are the rules if you want to know more: www.gov.ie/en/publication/3b8e1-mandatory-hotel-quarantine-your-questions-answered/

Don’t trust anybody! Covid-19: Astra Zeneca Blood clots

The newest information that reached Irish media is that all vaccinations with the Astra Zeneca vaccine have been put on hold over a risk of blood clots, that affected 4 patients in Norway and a few more in other countries. www.rte.ie/news/2021/0314/1203889-niac-recommends-suspension-of-use-of-astrazeneca-vaccin/

Sounds like a sound and responsible decision, right? Duty of care and all that. Well done, boys!

But then you look at the BIG picture and think back to February and also think about what else is going on and suddenly you realise that there is probably a lot more going on. AGAIN!

Here are the facts and conclusions:

Norway had 4 (FOUR!!) cases of blood clots. They are all in hospital and are being treated. In Austria one person died from a blood clot and one if in hospital, in Denmark one died (a second one is in hospital) and in Italy possibly also one death has been reported.

So that is a total of maybe three deaths and five people in hospital. 8 people out of 17 million administered vaccines. Maybe it is even 30 patients as the article mentions when referring to the European Medicines Agency (EMA).

That’s still not a lot and a link to the vaccine is far from clear, but yes, it probably makes sense to pause a clinical trial if you have some deaths. (Oh, you think this is NOT a clinical trial? Hmm, think again!! It is a mass trial and nothing else but an experiment!)

But let’s move on and remember January. We found out at the end of January that 33 elderly people in Norway died shortly after receiving their Covid-19 vaccination from Pfizer/BioNTech. But we were told quickly that this has NO relevance (www.wired.co.uk/article/norway-deaths-coronavirus-vaccine) because the patients were elderly and would have died anyway. :-O

We don’t even know if there were other deaths elsewhere in the world. Or maybe we do but we aren’t told? We don’t know in what state of health they or the others that possibly died elsewhere were in. We now their age and a conclusion was made. We just discarded the 33 old people in Norway and moved on. Not for a second the vaccination programme was halted.

This time a number of countries halted the Astra Zeneca vaccination and MANY countries followed quickly, because if ONE country stops it and someone dies in ANOTHER country the politicians and “experts” and the country where people died will be blamed. Publicity-caused ripple effect!

A blood clot is something serious, but there seem to be a number of different blood clot-caused issues that could have killed the patients and pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis are the main ones.

As a side note: Between 1981 and 1999 a total of 5408 patients were admitted to hospital with venous thromboembolism (deep vein thrombosis) after they were on international flights according to a study www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC261739/. That is 5408 in 18 years or 300 per year. Have you heard of halting all international flights until the matter is investigated further?

But back to the vaccines:
The significant difference between the end of January and now is that at that time there was not much other choice available. So, we better keep going.

This time, however, we are in a situation where Astra Zeneca just can’t supply ENOUGH vaccine and governments around the world try to “fix” that problem or explain it SOMEHOW. The Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Micheal Martin even thought it was prudent to seek a meeting with the CEO of Astra Zeneca to discuss the problem. As if the CEO was giggling while sitting on a stash that he doesn’t want to release to the governments of the world UNTIL Micheal Martin told him off..

So Astra Zeneca can’t deliver and there won’t be many vaccinations. People in Ireland and other countries are getting annoyed and governments try to make the process faster, but can’t and they get a lot of pressure from their people. And just in that moment a reason pops up that gives PERFECT justification to all countries to stop the use of that one vaccine for a week or so. Breathing space for politicians!!

Is anyone surprised that they JUMP On the opportunity to halt the vaccination? In one week there will be more doses, so this breathing space nicely shuts up all the complainers in media and public for a little bit.

Don’t trust ANYBODY in this Covid game!!! Everybody has an agenda!

 

How to lose the people’s support for anti-Covid measures!

How to lose the people’s support for anti-Covid measures!

You would think that people who are doing something the second time around will have learned from the first time and will do everything better, right? But strangely it seems that leopards really don’t change their spots, as the saying goes, at least not easily. :-O And it also seems that learning is harder than we think. We do make mistakes even if they stare us in the face. I know that and you might know that too!?

But before this turns into a psychotherapy session ;-) I should explain that I am (at least in part) referring to our politicians and their learning from the first lockdown. We will be for another good while in this lockdown… but they really didn’t learn!!

Things weren’t perfect the first time around, but we largely did what we were told, because it was quite clear and because we thought we understood why we did it. But then we realised that the politicians and “experts” really had no clue either and so the second time around the approach should have been to explain things better and to make it easier to adhere to the rules. More laws, threats (penalties, even prison) for breaking some of the rules and sending gardai to stop shops from selling their normal items (as they we allowed the first time around) is NOT the way to do it.

Instead it is a guarantee to lose the support from the people! And being out on the streets and in shops, it is clear that the trust and support is gone. The current nonsensical rules over “essential products” show that the government has no clue of what lockdowns mean to you and me. Closing SOME aisles of supermarkets, making it illegal to buy stationary or a towel, but legal to buy alcohol is a ridiculous over exaggeration.

Leo Varadkar who didn’t do too badly the first time around has totally screwed up this time (www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1025/1173788-coronavirus-ireland/) and our temporary other Taoiseach, Micheal Martin is just continuing his non-impressive handling of an admittedly challenging situation.

There are two effects that the “making illegal” of selling any extra products in supermarkets apart from things that are required for survival will have: The first effect is that as soon as shops are open fully again, there will be a mad run on shops with the consequence that even before Christmas the infection numbers will increase like crazy again. And the second effect is that even the bit of money that is made through selling a chainsaw in Lidl or a fleece jacket in Aldi or a child’s runners in Dunnes during the lockdown will now make its way to Amazon, instead of staying in Ireland. The government is showing the middle finger to any “buy local” campaign and in the end the small retailers that they allegedly want to protect with this stupid rule will not get the business anyway.

The Corona Files: Next step of lifting restrictions will NOT be taken

The Corona Files: Next step of lifting restrictions will NOT be taken

The news is out and it is not good!

Pubs will stay closed for AT LEAST another four weeks until 31 August and – let’s face it – it is highly unlikely that anything significant will change in the next three weeks, considering the worldwide Covid situation. So who knows until when they will stay closed.

This obviously also has a significant impact on any live entertainment going forward and will not only leave pub owners and employees in a challenging situation, but will be devastating news for all the musicians that we have in Ireland.

A curfew for restaurants and pubs serving food of 23:00 was introduced as well (takeaways are allowed to stay open longer) and face masks will be mandatory in shops from 10 August.

And if you were hoping that there will be SOME good news elsewhere….not so!

Malta, Cyprus, Gibraltar, San Marino and Monaco were taken off the green list and seemingly no other countries were added.

The limits for crowds will also stay in place: 50 for indoor events and 200 for outdoor events.

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And ALL this while we currently only have 448 cases of reported Covid infections in Ireland. If we multiply this by 10 to catch non-reported infections, then we have in the whole country just 4480 active cases. If we assume a population of 4,921,500, you need to meet 1098 (!!) people before you meet ONE Covid sufferer. 😮

Can we survive another while without pubs? Sure we can if we have to! But looking at how public health policy is made at the moment, the makers of the rules seem to believe in the fairy tale that Ireland can eradicate the Coronavirus. Does that sound likely to you? What is your guess, when will pubs open? And will we have to cancel Christmas?

(Clarification: The number 448 is the sum of all cases that were reported in the last 14 days and is therefore the number of the cases that can assumed to be still active.)

 
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