Joerg's Ramblings

People in Ireland are right to be angry about fuel prices.

Over the past weeks, petrol and diesel costs have surged to never seen before levels, driven by the wider oil shock linked to the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran. In Ireland, that has triggered protests, road blockades, depot blockades and major disruption in Dublin and beyond. More than 100 filling stations have reportedly run dry, emergency planning has been activated and companies including DPD Ireland have suspended services because of the disruption.

The anger is real and understandable!

Fuel prices are not made up only of the market cost of oil and refining. In Ireland, they also include Mineral Oil Tax, a carbon tax component within that tax and VAT at the standard 23% rate. The Government did already announce temporary cuts from late March, saying the package would reduce the pump price by about 17 cent per litre for petrol and 22 cent for diesel once the excise and levy changes are combined.

So there is a reduction in price that has been enabled by the government, but when the base price rises sharply, the final price at the pump still is punishing. For households, commuters, hauliers, farmers and small businesses, this is not some abstract economic debate. It is immediate and painful.

So yes, the protest is legitimate, even if the Irish government hasn’t caused the rise of the base price.

In fact, one of Ireland’s recurring problems is that people often tolerate too much for too long. Peaceful protest is a healthy part of democracy. It signals that something has gone badly wrong and that people are no longer willing to absorb the cost in silence.

But supporting the right to protest does not mean supporting every form of protest.

And that is where this movement loses me.

A protest that wants to be taken seriously must meet a basic standard. It needs leadership. It needs structure. It needs a clear set of demands. It needs people who can speak for it and negotiate on its behalf. And it needs to know the difference between disruption that makes a point and disruption that turns the public against the cause.

At the moment, this fuel protest appears to be failing that test.

It has largely been organised through social media. It does not seem to have a clear and recognised leadership structure. Its demands are blurred. Some want fuel price caps. Some want further tax reductions. Some want carbon taxes removed. Some claim to speak for farmers or hauliers, while established representative bodies have not clearly owned or led the action. That makes it much easier for political leaders to dismiss the protest and much harder for the public to know exactly what they are being asked to support.

And these details matter, especially when the protest has such a huge effect.

A government cannot realistically negotiate with an anonymous crowd whose demands are shifting and whose authority is uncertain. Grassroots anger is real, but anger alone is not a negotiating position.

Worse still, once a protest begins to choke fuel supply, paralyse roads, disrupt deliveries and interfere with ordinary people trying to work and live, it crosses an important line. Protest should put pressure on power. It should not hold the wider public to ransom.

There is a big difference between a warning protest and an open-ended campaign of disruption. A warning protest says: this is serious, listen now, or stronger action will follow. What is happening at the moment is not disciplined pressure, but it is uncontrolled escalation. And uncontrolled escalation is usually self-defeating. It may create headlines, but it also creates resentment, especially when ordinary workers, patients, families and small businesses are the ones suffering even more.

If this movement wants to succeed, it needs to grow up quickly.

It should appoint credible representatives. It should define two or three clear demands. It should separate legitimate pressure from national self-harm. And it should communicate in a way that allows the wider public to say, “Yes, I support that.”

There is also a more serious policy discussion underneath all this.

If global oil prices surge because of war or geopolitical instability, the Irish Government cannot control the international oil market. But it can control how the domestic tax burden is structured. That is where a more serious proposal could come in.

One sensible idea would be to limit the state take per litre to fixed amounts rather than letting part of the tax burden rise automatically with price. Excise is already fixed per litre, but VAT is percentage-based, so when the underlying price rises, the VAT take rises too. That leaves many people with the understandable impression that the State benefits from price spikes while everyone else suffers.

That does not mean every tax should disappear. It does mean the system should be reviewed so that extraordinary international shocks do not automatically inflate the State’s share while households and businesses struggle.

THAT is a debate worth having.

But it is not helped by chaos without leadership.

So my position is simple. The protesters can be angry. They are right to protest. But they are wrong in how they are doing it. A protest without structure, without accountable leadership and without a disciplined strategy is not strong. It is weak. And once it starts damaging the lives of the very public whose support it needs, it stops being a justified warning and starts becoming sabotage.

Ireland needs serious pressure on serious issues.

It also needs protests that are serious enough to deserve support.